I just want to go on record that I think this COVID-19 situation is serious.And I feel that implementing the recommended social distancing measures is our best way to slow the spread (https://www.flattenthecurve.com) and buy time. Time to improve testing, time to develop effective treatments, time to keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, time for a vaccine to be developed.
I do not by any means advocate panic, but planning and preparation are necessary. We shouldn't be haphazardly buying up everything in sight but we should be planning and purchasing enough to reduce necessary trips to the store and therefore our contact with other people.
For those comparing the absolute numbers to date against the absolute numbers of past viral outbreaks (such as H1N1) or current flu numbers, you are badly missing the point. The concern is not the current numbers but the exponential growth rate. I've seen people say that 46,000,000 got the flu and 46,000 died and no one panicked. (Here's a link to the estimated impact of the 2019-20 flu season so far: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm).
In contrast, current estimates are that 40-70% Americans will get COVID-19 and let's say 1% of those die (current US death rate from COVID-19 is 2.1%). Even using the low end estimate for how many will be infected (40%), that means 132,000,000 (333,000,000 X .4) will get it and 1,320,000 (132,000,000 X .01) will die. Compare those numbers to the aforementioned flu numbers and tell me this isn't a big deal. For additional context, in 2018 ~2.8 million Americans died total of all causes.(Here's a breakdown of some of the different scenarios being looked at by the CDC: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html).
If we don't all do our part and try to curb the spread of this virus, the death rate will undoubtedly go up because too many will be unable to get the treatment they need. Death rates from other causes will likely increase as well because our hospitals will be full. Say that 10% of cases require hospitalization. That would mean 13,200,000 (again, based on a 40% infection rate) people hospitalized, far exceeding the number of hospital beds we have available. If most of those happen over a three month span, it will be a disaster. But if our actions cause the spread of the disease to happen over a much longer period of time, we give ourselves a chance. If our actions also reduce the total infection rate or allow time for medicines to be found to reduce the hospitalization rate and the death rate, all the better.
If you're not taking this seriously, please do. For the good of everyone.
I do not by any means advocate panic, but planning and preparation are necessary. We shouldn't be haphazardly buying up everything in sight but we should be planning and purchasing enough to reduce necessary trips to the store and therefore our contact with other people.
For those comparing the absolute numbers to date against the absolute numbers of past viral outbreaks (such as H1N1) or current flu numbers, you are badly missing the point. The concern is not the current numbers but the exponential growth rate. I've seen people say that 46,000,000 got the flu and 46,000 died and no one panicked. (Here's a link to the estimated impact of the 2019-20 flu season so far: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm).
In contrast, current estimates are that 40-70% Americans will get COVID-19 and let's say 1% of those die (current US death rate from COVID-19 is 2.1%). Even using the low end estimate for how many will be infected (40%), that means 132,000,000 (333,000,000 X .4) will get it and 1,320,000 (132,000,000 X .01) will die. Compare those numbers to the aforementioned flu numbers and tell me this isn't a big deal. For additional context, in 2018 ~2.8 million Americans died total of all causes.(Here's a breakdown of some of the different scenarios being looked at by the CDC: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html).
If we don't all do our part and try to curb the spread of this virus, the death rate will undoubtedly go up because too many will be unable to get the treatment they need. Death rates from other causes will likely increase as well because our hospitals will be full. Say that 10% of cases require hospitalization. That would mean 13,200,000 (again, based on a 40% infection rate) people hospitalized, far exceeding the number of hospital beds we have available. If most of those happen over a three month span, it will be a disaster. But if our actions cause the spread of the disease to happen over a much longer period of time, we give ourselves a chance. If our actions also reduce the total infection rate or allow time for medicines to be found to reduce the hospitalization rate and the death rate, all the better.
If you're not taking this seriously, please do. For the good of everyone.
